Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
